基于Copula函数的区域降水联合分布与特征分析  

Analysis of Joint Distribution and Characteristics of Regional Rainfall Based on Copula Function

作　　者：高超[1] 梅亚东[1] 涂新军[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第6期1-5,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(50839005);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(09YJC910010)

摘　　要：为深入研究降水时空分布特性,以便为流域水资源合理配置提供科学依据,以广东省东江流域内32个代表雨量站1956～2009年月降雨量资料为例,根据泰森多边形法计算四个子区间的面雨量,采用边际插值函数法(IFM)估计Copula函数参数,通过AIC信息准则确定研究时段内任意两相邻区间面雨量指标的联合分布。结合历史雨量极值组合所对应的重现期计算结果表明,东江流域降水时空分布不均匀,前汛期时段流域水资源状况较为安全,流域上游水资源状况也较为安全,后汛期与枯季时段流域下游水资源状况最为严峻。基于Copula函数方法与传统面雨量频率分析方法相比,能更全面地反映降水的分布特征。This paper made a thorough study on the temporal and spatial distribution law of precipitation to provide scientific basis for reasonable allocation of basin water resources.Taking the monthly precipitation of 32 representative gauging stations in Dongjiang River valley of Guangdong province during 1956-2009 as an example,areal rainfall of four subarea is calculated with Thiessen polygonal method.And then the parameters of Copula function are estimated based on inference function for Margins（IFM method）.Finally,Akaike＇s information criterion（AIC） is used to calculate the joint distribution of areal rainfall indices in any adjacent region during research period.Combined with return period of the combination of historical extreme rainfall value,the results show that the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in Dongjiang basin is non-uniform;watershed water resources situation during the first flood period is safe relatively;the water resources situation in the upper reaches of the basin is also safe;water resources situation in the lower reaches of the basin during the later flood season and dry season is severe;Compared with the results of frequency analysis of areal rainfall indices by traditional method,the Copula function method can more comprehensively reflect the distribution characteristics of rainfall.

关 键 词：降水 COPULA函数 IFM方法 联合分布 重现期 频率分析 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]