相关分析法在矿井涌水量预测中的应用  

Correlational Analysis Method Applied to Prediction of Mine Water Inflow Quantity

作　　者：段俭君[1] 徐会军[2] 王子河[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国煤炭地质总局第三水文地质队,河北邯郸560001 [2]神华集团有限责任公司,北京100011 [3]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《煤炭科学技术》2013年第6期114-116,76,共4页Coal Science and Technology

摘　　要：针对水文地质参数影响矿井水量预测可靠性的问题,提出利用多年矿井涌水量预测的相关因素分析法进行预测,以同煤大唐塔山煤矿为例,建立塔山煤矿充水地质模型,利用SPSS软件分析塔山煤矿矿井涌水量与累计煤炭产量、累计掘进进尺和累计采空区面积的相关性,建立矿井涌水量多元回归方程,实现矿井涌水量可靠预测。预测结果表明,塔山煤矿矿井涌水量与累计煤炭产量密切相关,煤矿开采3-5号煤层时的矿井涌水量为4 972 m3/d。该研究为煤矿防治水安全提供了可靠技术支持。According to the hydrogeological parameters affected to the prediction reliability of the mine water quantity, the related factor analysis method to predict many years water inflow quantity was provided for predicting.Based on Datang Tashan Mine of Datong Coal Mine as a case ,a water filling geological model of Tashan Mine was established.The SPSS software was applied to analyze the relativity between the Tashan mine water inflow quantity and the mine accumulated coal production,the accumulated heading advance rate and the accumula- ted goaf area.Mtdti regression equation of the mine water inflow quantity was set up and a reliable prediction of the mine water inflow could be realized.The results showed that the mine water inflow quantity of Tashan Mine was closely related to the accumulated coal production. When the coal mining was in No.3-5 seam of the mine ,the mine water inflow quantity would be 4 972 m^3/d.The study could provide reliable technical suooort to the mine water orevention and control in the mine.

关 键 词：矿井涌水量 相关分析法 累计煤炭产量 累计掘进进尺 累计采空区面积 

分 类 号：TD742[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]