驳“深圳发展潜力衰竭”论  

Shenzhen running out its potential?

作　　者：郭茂佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2013年第3期92-97,共6页Journal of Shenzhen University：Humanities & Social Sciences

摘　　要：随着个位数低速经济增长现象的出现,国内外掀起了新一轮全面唱衰深圳的思潮。然而,笔者运用趋势分析的研究方法,得出的结论是未来深圳的发展潜力并未衰竭。依据主要是:(1)深圳长期增长的空间并没有被完全封闭,继续前行的步伐不会因欧美金融危机而停滞;(2)深圳楼市泡沫破灭的先决条件尚未生成,推动深圳房市蓬勃发展的原有因素非但没有消失,甚至还在不断强化;(3)近看深圳股市投资价值罕见,远观深圳股市前程无量;(4)困扰深圳银行业发展的诸多不利因素正在淡化,而助推银行业发展壮大的有利元素则在不断形成。As China＇s economy plunges from a two-digit to an one-digit growth pattern, the city of Shenzhen is seeing a new wave of skepticism in and outside of China about the sustainability of its economic growth. Using tendency analysis, this author argues that Shenzhen is not showing any sign of running out of its growth potential. First, space for long-term growth still exists despite the economic crises in Europe and the U.S. Second, the bursting of the real estate bubble in Shenzhen is not remotely in sight. If anything, factors abound that seem to point to further thriving of Shenzhen＇s property market. Third, Shenzhen＇s stock market likely has a very bright future. Fourth, many of the factors impeding growth in the banking sector are phasing out and thegrowth factors are gradually emerging.

关 键 词：深圳 楼市 经济 股市 银行业 

分 类 号：F127.9[经济管理—世界经济]