美联储量化宽松政策对中国经济和人民币汇率的影响  

The Influence of the Second Round of Quantitative Easing Policy of the United States on RMB Exchange Rate

作　　者：齐晓楠[1,2] 成思危[2] 汪寿阳[3] 李自然[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学管理学院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心,北京100190 [3]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《管理评论》2013年第5期3-10,共8页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71003094)

摘　　要：本文首次以VAR模型测算了美国第二轮量化宽松政策(QE2)对美主要宏观经济指标的影响。为了进一步分析其传导机制以及对人民币汇率的影响,本文建立了包含实体经济、虚拟经济、货币和汇率的中国经济联立方程系统,并进行了政策模拟,检验了不同美联储新增国债购买规模下的人民币实际有效汇率指数。实证结果表明,中长期QE2加剧了人民币的升值压力。最后,针对QE2对人民币汇率和我国经济的影响,提出了政策建议。The paper is the first exercise to estimate the effects of Quantitative Easing Policy on the macro economy of the United States based on VAR model. In order to further analyze the transmission mechanism and the influence on China＇s economy and RMB exchange rate, the paper establishes simultaneous equations model to include the real economy, virtual economy, monetary and RMB exchange rate, and then runs policy simulations to explore different scenarios of the Federal Reserve monetary policy and their impacts on RMB exchange rate. The empirical results show that in the long term Quantitative Easing of the United States exacerbated the pres- sure on RMB appreciation. Finally, the paper gives some policy suggestions based on the empirical findings.

关 键 词：量化宽松 人民币汇率 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]