北极航线通航环境的盲数模型评估  

The Evaluation of Arctic Route Navigation Environment by Blind Number Model

作　　者：李振福[1] 任艳阳 马书孟[1] 汤晓雯[1] 李漪[1] 李贺[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]唐山轨道客车有限公司,河北唐山064000

出　　处：《集美大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第3期185-191,共7页Journal of Jimei University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(08BGJ007);国家自然科学基金项目(61174166)

摘　　要：为了研究北极航线通航问题,对北极航线的航行技术环境、人文环境和自然环境进行了深入分析,建立了北极航线通航环境评估指标体系,并在此基础上,利用盲数模型对北极航线通航环境进行了安全风险评估,确定了北极航线通航环境安全等级.研究结果表明,盲数理论用于航线通航环境评价,具有一定的理论可行性和推广应用价值.With global warming,the Arctic sea ice began to melt,making the opening of the Arctic Route possible.Due to the significant economic and strategic value of the Arctic Route,the change in its navigational environment has drawn the attention of all relevant countries.Through in-depth analysis of the navigation technological environment,humanistic environment and natural environment on the Arctic Route,this paper establishes an evaluation index system of the navigational environment of the Arctic Route.On this basis,it evaluates the security risk of the navigational environment on the Arctic Route by using the Blind number model,and then determines the level of security of the navigational environment on the Arctic Route.The results are of significant reference value for our country＇s development and utilization of the Arctic Route.

关 键 词：北极航线 通航环境 盲数模型 评估 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程]