国际农产品价格上涨对中国宏观经济的影响  

The Impact of Soaring Agricultural Products Price on China's Macro-economy

作　　者：刘振亚[1] 陈宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2013年第7期62-69,共8页Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790050)

摘　　要：在全球农产品价格不断上涨的背景下,基于GTAP模型和数据库,使用一般均衡方法定量测算国际农产品价格上涨对中国宏观经济指标和各行业影响的分析表明,国际农产品价格上涨将导致中国农产品价格上升,进而传导至各部门并影响价格、产出、就业等各项指标,导致社会总体福利降低,随着价格上涨幅度的增加,其负效应也随之相应增加。国际农产品价格的上涨对行业的影响也体现出一定的结构性特征,即国内农业受其影响出现扩张的同时,其他产业则出现了紧缩。On the background of soaring global Agricultural Products Price , this paper make quantitative analysis on the impact of this problem on China＇s macroeconomic indices as well as various industries, based on GTAP model and database. The empirical study shows that： increase of global agricultural products＇ price will increase domestic agricultural products price, and have an impact on the price output and employment in other industries. In general, the increasing on the global agricultural price has a negative effect on macro e- conomy and the more the global Agricultural Products Price increased the worse the situation is. What＇s more, this problem will also influence the structural of the industries, the agricultural will expm^ion and oth- er industry will cut down.

关 键 词：农产品价格 宏观经济 GTAP 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济] F124F224