吉林省农业气象干旱灾害的风险分析及区划  

Risk analysis and regionalization of agrometeorological drought hazard in Jilin Province of Northeast China

作　　者：刘玉英[1] 石大明[1] 胡轶鑫[1] 张晨琛[1] 张婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省气候中心,长春130062

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2013年第6期1518-1524,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项(GYHY20096021)资助

摘　　要：利用1961—2010年吉林省50个站气候观测资料、1981—2010年干旱灾情和农业经济资料,基于灾害风险系统分析理论、农田水分平衡法和综合灾害风险指数法,在分析干旱对吉林省农业影响致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防旱减灾能力的基础上,应用加权综合法得到不同单元的综合风险度指数;基于GIS技术,开展了干旱对吉林省农业影响的风险区划。结果表明:致灾因子危险性的高值区分布在西部的白城和松原大部分地区,孕灾环境敏感性的高值区分布在白城地区、松原地区、四平地区北部和通化地区南部,承灾体脆弱性的高值区主要分布在经济较发达的松原大部分地区、长春大部分地区、四平地区等,防旱减灾能力的高值区分布在松原、长春、四平、吉林和通化市区及其周边地区。考虑各因子的综合风险度,干旱对吉林省农业影响的风险可分为高风险、次高风险、中等风险、次低风险和低风险5个等级,其中,高、次高风险主要分布在吉林省中西部的白城、松原、长春和四平地区。Based on the 1961-2010 observation data from 50 meteorological stations and the 1981-2010 drought disasters＇ and agricultural economic data, and by using the theories of natu- ral disasters systematic analysis as well as the methods of farmland water balance and disaster risk index, this paper analyzed the dangers of drought hazard-causing factors to agricultural produc- tion, the sensitivity of drought hazard-formative environments, the vulnerability of drought haz- ard-affected bodies, and the capability of drought prevention and disaster mitigation in Jilin Prov- ince of Northeast China. The comprehensive risk indices of different units were obtained by using the weighting comprehensive evaluation method, and the drought hazard affecting the agricultural production of the Province was spatially regionalized based on GIS technology. In the Province, the high risk region of drought disaster-causing factors was distributed in the Baicheng and most areas of Songyuan in western Jilin, the high sensitivity region of drought hazard-formative envi- ronments was distributed in the areas of Baicheng, Songyuan, north of Siping, and south of Tong- hua, the high vulnerability region of drought hazard-affected bodies was distributed in the eco- nomically more developed areas, including the most parts of Songyuan and Changchun, and Siping, and the region with high capacity of drought prevention and disaster mitigation was mainly distributed in Songyuan, Changchun, Siping, Jilin City, and Tonghua urban area and its sur- rounding areas, tn considering the integrated risk level of all the drought hazard-causing factors, the drought risk affecting the agricultural production of Jilin Province could be classified into 5 levels, i. e. , high, sub-high, medium, sub-low, and low, among which, high and sub-high risks mainly occurred in the regions of Baicheng, Songyuan, Changchun, and Siping.

关 键 词：干旱 风险指数 农业风险分析 农业风险区划 吉林省 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]