以小时为步长的大兴安岭兴安落叶松林地表可燃物含水率预测模型  

Prediction models for ground surface fuels moisture content of Larix gmelinii stand in Daxing’anling of China based on one-hour time step

作　　者：于宏洲[1] 金森[1] 邸雪颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2013年第6期1565-1571,共7页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项(201204508)资助

摘　　要：应用时滞平衡含水率法(包括Nelson和Simard两种)及气象要素回归法,以小时为步长对大兴安岭地区阳坡上部落叶松林下地表细小死可燃物进行动态含水率测定,分析了不同郁闭度林分的预测误差.结果表明:以小时为步长的可燃物含水率预测方法适用于大兴安岭地区的典型落叶松林分,Simard法预测平均绝对误差为1.1%,平均相对误差为8.5%,低于Nelson法和传统的气象要素回归法,接近同类研究的误差范围;同一坡度、坡位上,不同郁闭度下的可燃物含水率变化差异较大,使用以小时为步长的可燃物含水率预测方法,应根据不同地区林分和地点选择合适的平衡含水率模型,或建立基于林分的可燃物含水率模型.By using the equilibrium moisture content-time lag methods of Nelson and Simard and the meteorological element regression method, this paper studied the dynamics of the moisture content of ground surface fine dead fuels under a Larix gmelinii stand on the sunny slope in Daxing’anling with a time interval of one hour, established the corresponding prediction models, and analyzed the prediction errors under different understory densities. The results showed that the prediction methods of the fuels moisture content based on one-hour time step were applicable for the typical Larix gmelinii stand in Daxing’anling. The mean absolute error and the mean relative error of Simard method was 1.1% and 8.5%, respectively, being lower than those of Nelson method and meteorological element regression method, and close to those of similar studies. On the same slopes and slope positions, the fuel moisture content varied with different understory densities, and thus, it would be necessary to select the appropriate equilibrium moisture content model for specific regional stand and position, or establish the fuel moisture content model based on specific stand when the dynamics of fuel moisture content would be investigated with a time interval of one hour.

关 键 词：兴安落叶松 以小时为步长 平衡含水率 气象要素回归 大兴安岭 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]