基于系统动力学的大连城市化进程中生态承载力模拟预测  

Simulation and prediction of ecological bearing capacity based on system dynamics in urbanization process of Dalian City

作　　者：马忠强[1] 汪林[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学环境科学与工程学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]大连大学环境与化学工程学院,辽宁大连116622

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2013年第4期70-75,共6页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40801228)

摘　　要：城市化进程将导致城市生态承载力受到威胁。将系统动力学原理运用于大连城市化实施过程中的生态承载力预测,在分析城市化系统特征及其系统内部各因素之间复杂关系的基础上,建立系统动力学生态承载力动态仿真模型。根据预测结果,大连市2015年和2020年水资源、土地、COD的生态承载力利用强度指数都大于1,尤其是COD,分别达到4.24和4.43;其次是水资源,分别为1.67和1.81;再次是土地,分别为1.15和1.75。2015年和2020年大连市生态承载力综合指数分别达到了4.25和4.95,且远期开发强度与生态承载力的矛盾将进一步加剧。Urbanization process will make threat to city ecological bearing capacity. According to system dynamics principle, the ecological bearing capacity dynamic simulation model has been constructed to predict the ecological carrying capacity during the urbanization process in Daliah. The model is constructed based on the detailed analysis to the systematic characteristics of urbanization process and the complex relationship between the factors in the urbanization system. The predicted results indicate that urbanization will strongly threaten the ecological environment. In 2015 and 2020, the usage degree index of water resource, land resource and COD are all greater than 1, beyond the regional ecological bearing capacity of Dalian city, especially COD, respectively 4.24 and 4.43, the next is water resources, respectively 1.67 andl：81, the last is land, respectively 1.15 and 1.75. In the year of 2015 and 2020, the ecological bearing capacity composite index of Dalian city will reach 4.25 and 4.95, and the contradictions between long-term exploitation intensity and ecological bearing capacity will deteriorate.

关 键 词：城市化 系统动力学 生态承载力 利用强度 

分 类 号：S719[农业科学—林学]