我国奥运会奖牌的历时演进与未来趋势  

Analysis of Medals of China Won at Summer Olympic Games

作　　者：梁潇[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南师范大学体育学院,河南新乡453002

出　　处：《武汉体育学院学报》2013年第6期68-75,共8页Journal of Wuhan Sports University

基　　金：2011年度河南省科技厅软科学项目(112400430122);河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2011-JZ-50)

摘　　要：夏季奥运会是国家竞技体育实力展示的重要平台,引起全球的广泛关注,而对其奖牌分布规律的研究可以为后续奥运战略布局提供前车之鉴。文章在搜集、整理第23-30届夏季奥运会中国体育代表团奖牌分布的基础上,运用描述统计、卡方检验、相关分析、回归分析与时间-序列模型等方法对中国体育代表团奖牌分布的历时演进规律进行研究,认为中国竞技体育实力逐步增强、奥运夺牌实力呈现多元化态势、奥运奖牌分布之间存在密切关联性、奥运战略布局科学合理,随后对中国的后续奥运战略提出了相应的建议。The Summer Olympic Games have been the most important platform for different countries to demonstrate their national strength. Therefore, the analysis of the distribution of medals obtained is significant for making plans of the future. In this paper, descriptive statistics, Chi-square Test, relative analysis, regression analysis and linear time serial model were adopted to reveal the characteristics of distribution of the medals. It could be seen that the Chinese sports competitiveness was strengthened and the strategies for winning medals were reasonable. In order to help drawing up future plans, countermeasures were proposed.

关 键 词：奥运会 中国 奖牌分布 历时演进 未来趋势 策略 

分 类 号：G812[文化科学—体育学]