生育水平评估与生育政策调整--基于中国大陆分省生育水平现状的分析  

Fertility Level Assessment and Fertility Policy Adjustment:An Analysis of the Provincial Data on Fertility Level in China's Mainland

作　　者：尹文耀[1] 姚引妹[1] 李芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学人口与发展研究所、浙江大学政策仿真实验室,杭州310012

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2013年第6期109-128,206-207,共20页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国分省人口发展模拟和生育政策比较选择”(批准号08BRK009)部分成果

摘　　要："十一五"期间我国大陆的总和生育率为1.481,呈稳中有降态势,形成了"中、西部中度低水平,东部深度低水平,东北极度低水平"的空间格局。除少数极低生育率省区回升外,实际生育率及其与政策生育率的比值仍在下降。生育率下降的主要推动力是发展,突出表现为生育旺盛期育龄妇女比总人口和育龄妇女的城镇化、非农化水平高、人口外出流动比例大,以及城镇生产、生活方式和文化观念对农业人口的同化作用。发展促使生育率下降的趋势已不可逆转。现行生育政策难以使生育率稳定在合理的低水平。有可能引起政策性反弹的重点在计划生育基础较好的城镇和东部及东北地区;有可能引起非政策性反弹的势能,已基本释放;中、西部农村年轻一代妇女多胎生育比例平均只有4.12%。生育政策调整完善中的生育率反弹可通过渐进式策略实施有效调控,不会引起生育率大幅强烈反弹。我国生育政策全国统一调整时机已成熟。The total fertility rate of China's Mainland during the'11th Five-year Period'was 1.481,showing a steady decline and taking on a spatial pattern of 'medium low in the middle and west,deep low in the east,and extreme low in the north east.'Except for the increase of a few provinces with extreme-low fertility rate,the actual fertility rate and its ratio to policy fertility rate are still on the decrease.The major driving force of lowered fertility is development,which is typically seen in the higher urbanization and non-agriculturalization level of those women who are in prime fertility ages than total population or women in child-bearing ages,the large wave of migration,and the assimilation effects of urban livelihood and cultural ideas on rural population.The lowfertility tendency under the effects of development is irreversible.And it is hard for the existing fertility policy to maintain the fertility rate at a rational low level.The key regions that might witness a policy reversal are those urban areas,eastern part and the northeast that have a better basis of birth control;the potential that might incur a non-policy reversal has largely be exhausted;and the additional fertility of the young generation of women in the middle and west is only 4.12% on average.The fertility rebound in the process of fertility policy adjustment can be controlled through progressive strategies.The time for a nation-wide readjustment of the fertility policy has become ripe.

关 键 词：政策生育率 实际生育率 分省生育率 区域生育率 一代独生子女 政策 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]