通货膨胀不确定性:内涵及影响  

Inflation Uncertainty:Definition and Influences

作　　者：陈玉财[1] 王宇峰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行大连市中心支行 [2]东北财经大学

出　　处：《金融评论》2013年第2期61-74,125,共14页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

摘　　要：通货膨胀不确定性是通货膨胀不可预测部分的方差。通胀不确定性的大小取决于国内外经济金融形势和政府威信。通货膨胀对通胀不确定性有正向影响,通胀不确定性通过影响通胀预期而间接影响通货膨胀。通货膨胀不确定性对经济的影响可分为事前影响和事后影响。实证检验发现,通胀不确定性与通货膨胀之间有很强的双向格兰杰因果关系:如果经济保持快速增长,通胀不确定性对经济的干扰会不断加大,控制通胀不确定性的意义也就更加重大。Inflation uncertainty can be defined as variance of unpredictable component of inflation.Inflation uncertainty is determined by economic situations and authority of government.Inflation has positive impact on inflation uncertainty,and inflation uncertainty affects inflation through the channel of inflation expectation.Inflation uncertainty has both ex ante effects and ex post effects on the overall economy.Empirical analysis shows that there are strong bidirectional Granger-causality relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation.Inflation uncertainty has negative impact on the economy.If the economy grows at a fast speed,inflation uncertainty would disturb the economy severely,on which occasion the monetary authority should make great efforts to control inflation uncertainty.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 不确定性 经济增长 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]