我国原木进口贸易及其影响因素的实证分析  

An Empirical Study of China’s Log Import and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：唐帅[1] 宋维明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《世界林业研究》2013年第3期87-91,共5页World Forestry Research

基　　金：国家林业局林业公益性行业科研专项基于林改的森林资源可持续经营技术研究(2009432003)

摘　　要：原木在我国木材产业发展过程中具有基础性作用。随着我国木材加工业的快速发展,原木消耗大幅上升,木材供需矛盾日益突出,原木进口量持续多年保持增长。文中介绍了我国原木进口的基本情况:进口总量、进口材种结构和进口来源;通过逐步回归方法,以1995—2010年原木进口数据为样本,分析影响我国原木进口的主要因素。研究表明,我国原木进口受到国内生产总值、国内木材产量、木家具和胶合板出口量的显著影响。为此,文中认为创新木材加工技术、提高森林经营管理水平、拓宽木材进口渠道是保证我国木材供给的关键所在。Logs play a fundamental role in China＇ s timber industry. With the rapid development of China＇ s timber processing industry, log imports have increased in volume for years in a row, the timber consumption has increased sharply and the timber supply-demand unbalance has become increasingly prominent. This paper firstly introduced the current situation of China＇ s log imports, including the total import amount, the wood import structure and the import sources. Then the main impacting factors to China＇ s log imports were analyzed via stepwise regression with the data from 1995 to 2010. It showed that China＇ s log imports are affected by the GDP, the domestic timber production and the export volume of wooden furniture and plywood. Based on the finding, this paper put forward that wood processing technology innovation, improvement of forest management level and the broadening sources of log imports are the key to ensuring timber supply to China in the long run.

关 键 词：原木 进口 实证研究 影响因素 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]