基于行为金融学的房价预期对地价的动态作用机制研究  

Research on the Dynamic Effect of Adaptive Expectation of Housing Prices on Land Prices Based on Behavioral Finance

作　　者：黄静[1,2] 王洪卫[1] 柯昇沛[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433 [2]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234 [3]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《财经研究》2013年第7期134-144,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71103121);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2011EJL002);中国博士后科学基金项目(2011M500058;2012T50385);上海市高校青年教师培养资助计划项目(shsf002);上海市教委科研创新项目(13YS044)

摘　　要：文章借鉴行为金融学中的适应性预期理论和前景理论,在对开发商的土地竞买行为特征进行理论分析的基础上,建立了房价预期对地价作用的非对称动态关系模型,并用中国的数据进行了实证检验。主要研究结论:房地产开发商基于房价历史数据形成未来房价预期,并依据房价预期对土地价值进行判断。开发商的房价预期对地价的作用具有动态性和非对称性。开发商在"优于预期"时段更加倾向于风险规避,在"劣于预期"时段更加倾向于风险趋向。同时,在"优于预期"时段对土地价值评估的增加程度要高于在"劣于预期"时段对土地价值评估的降低程度。By employing adaptive expectation theory and prospect theo ry in behavioral finance, this paper theoretically analyzes the characteristics of land auction behavior of developers and first constructs a model of the asymmetric dynamic relationship between the expectation of housing prices and land prices. Then it makes an empirical test by the data in China and reaches the following conclusions： firstly, real estate developers form future expectation of housing prices based on the historical data of housing prices and judge land values in accordance with the expectation of housing prices; secondly, the effect of developers＇ expectation of housing prices on land prices is dynamic and asymmetric; thirdly, developers are apt to be risk a- version on the stage of better than expected, and are inclined to be risk lovers on the stage of worse than expected. Moreover, the increase in land value assessment on the stage of better than expected is greater than the reduc- tion in land value assessment on the stage of worse than expected.

关 键 词：行为金融学 适应性预期 前景理论 开发商 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]