棉花剪无效花铃指标确定及预测模型探讨  

Defining the Index for Cutting Invalid Cotton Bolls and Exploring the Forecast Model

作　　者：刘耀武[1] 王建萍[2] 高莹 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象科学研究所,西安710015 [2]陕西省气象局 [3]咸阳市气象局

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2000年第2期26-30,共5页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：陕西省科委资助攻关项目!<棉花优质高产农业气象适用技术研究>

摘　　要：根据试验和调查 ,确定铃重 <2 .5g作为关中棉区无效花铃的铃重指标 ,根据铃重与花铃期热量条件的定量关系 ,给出了关中棉区无效花铃的热量指标为 <2 35℃· d(日平均气温≥ 15℃有效积温 ) ,提出了推算剪无效花铃日期的方法 ,建立了关中棉区剪无效花铃时间段的马尔柯夫链预测模型 ,并进行了实例分析和回代 ,效果较好。According to the results of experiments and investigations, it is determined that the boll-weight smaller than 2.5g is the index of boll-weight of invalid cotton bolls in Guanzhong region. Based on the quantitative rations relation between boll weight and heat conditions during the boll-setting period, the heat smaller than 235℃·d is determined as the heat index of invalid cotton bolls. In Guanzhong region, the daily mean temperature is larger or equal to the effective accumulated temperature of 15℃. Methods for calculating the data of cutting invalid bolls are advanced. The Markov Forecast model of cuting invalid bolls in Guanzhong region has been built, and good results are obtained in example analysis and tests.

关 键 词：棉花 无效花铃 预测模型 铃重指标 产量 品质 

分 类 号：S165.29[农业科学—农业气象学]