长株潭城市群地区耕地数量时空变化及其驱动力分析  

The Spatio-Temporal Change and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Quantity in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：邓楚雄[1] 李晓青[1] 向云波[1,2] 张晔[1] 刘利科[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,中国湖南长沙410081 [2]湖南科技大学建筑与城乡规划学院,中国湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第6期142-147,共6页Economic Geography

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC630032);湖南省教育厅资助科研项目(11C0798);湖南省软科学研究计划项目(2009ZK3165);湖南省国土资源科技计划项目(2010-17);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(11JJ3043);湖南师范大学青年优秀人才培养计划项目;湖南省社科基金项目(12YBA136)

摘　　要：采用1996—2009年土地利用变更数据和社会经济统计数据,运用变异系数、泰尔指数、相对变化率及主成分分析方法,结合GIS技术,分析长株潭城市群地区耕地数量时空变化及其驱动因子,结果表明:①长株潭城市群地区耕地总量呈波动中下降的发展态势,人均耕地数量呈逐年减少的发展趋势;②长株潭城市群地区耕地数量空间差异变化体现为"平缓—快速—平缓"的阶段性发展特征;③长株潭城市群地区耕地数量变化空间差异明显,多数市辖区与县级市耕地数量减少较大,多数县耕地数量有一定幅度的减少,宁乡县和茶陵县耕地数量有一定规模的增加,耕地数量相对变化率具有"市辖区>县级市>县"的空间分异特征;④社会经济综合发展水平(经济发展水平、人口发展、城市化和工业化)和农业科技创新与农业结构调整是长株潭城市群地区耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子。研究成果能为长株潭城市群地区耕地保护与经济社会协调发展提供客观依据,可为类似地区相关研究提供科学借鉴。Based on the land use survey data and socio-eeonomic statistical data from 1996 to 2009, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal change and it＇s driving factors of cultivated land quantity in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration by variation coefficient, theil index, relative change rate and the principal component analysis method, combining with the GIS technology. The results as follows： @the change trend of cultivated land quantity was fluctuated decline, and per capita cultivated land area decreased year by year in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration; （~）＂slow-fast-slow＂ staged development was the characteristics of. spatial difference change of cultivated land quantity in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration; @the spatial difference of cultivated land quantity change was obvious, cultivated land quantity decreased largely in most of municipal district and county-level city, decreased a certain scale in most of county, and increased a certain scale in Ningxiang and Chaling county, relative change rate of cultivated land quantity was presented a ＂municipal district〉county-level city〉county＂ spatial distribution; @socio-economic development level, innovation of agricultural science and technology and adjustment of agricultural structure were main driving forces of he cultivated land quantity change in Chang-Zhn-Tan urban agglomeration. The study results will provide a objective basis for cultivated land protection and socio-economic coordinated development, can provide a scientific reference for the same regions.

关 键 词：耕地数量 时空变化 驱动因子 长株潭城市群 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]