基于抗周期性角度的我国旅游产业政策效用评估研究——以四次旅游产业政策为例  

Study on Evaluation of the Effectiveness of China's Tourism Industrial Policy Based on the View of the Periodicity Resistance

作　　者：李锋[1] 孙根年[2] 付琦[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学旅游科学研究所,中国河南开封475001 [2]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,中国陕西西安710062

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第6期162-169,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BJY131);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(11YJA630043);国家旅游局规划项目(12TACG011)

摘　　要：旅游产业政策的效用评估是保证旅游产业政策科学性的有效手段。根据旅游产业政策效用评估的过程和目标,构建了旅游产业政策评估体系。对比国民经济和国内旅游的波动变化方向,得出国内旅游具有抗周期性结论。以1997年为界,国内旅游相对于国民经济而言,其从前期的滞后增长向后期的领先增长转变,从前期是国民经济增长的结果向后期是国民经济增长的动力转变。据此,1985年旅游产业政策,其对国民经济和旅游产业发展作用有限,且带来旅游产业结构高级化的下降;1991年和1993年旅游产业政策,其对国民经济发展意义不大,但对旅游产业发展起到了保健作用;1999年旅游产业政策,其对国民经济恢复起到了一定作用,对旅游经济发展也起到了一定激励作用;2009年旅游产业政策,即促进了国民经济发展,又激励了旅游产业发展,但也加深了旅游经济的脆弱性。Evaluation of the effectiveness is an effective guarantee of scientificalness for tourism industrial policy. Tourism industrial policy is consist of four types, policy of incentive, policy of protecting health, policy of rescue and policy of tools. Comparing with the process of the change of national economy and domestic tourism, it proves that domestic tourism has obviously periodicity resistance, and this character presents it＇ s rigidly gradually. Take 1997 as a boundary, the relationship of domestic tourism and national economy have changed from hysteresis growth to promoting growth, and from the result of national economic growth to the power of the national economy. Accordingly, the tourism industry policy, formulated in 1996, which has a limited influence on the national economy and tourism industry, and lead to the decline of tourism industrial structure. While the tourism industrial policy drew in 1991 and 1993, what is not quite important for the development of national economy, but has significance on the growth of the tourism industry. The tourism industry policy of 1999 plays a role at restoring national economy, and it stimulates the development of tourism economy. And the tourism industry policy of 2009 not only promoted the development of national economy, but also advances the development of the tourism industry and deonon~ the, xml^or^h;1;＊., ~~＊~ ^- ：

关 键 词：旅游产业政策 抗周期性 效用评估 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]