中国玉米需求及供需平衡趋势分析  

Discussions on the Trend of Chinese Corn Demand and Supply-Demand Balance

作　　者：乔颖丽[1] 王艳华[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北北方学院经济管理学院,河北张家口075000 [2]中国国际工程咨询公司,北京100048

出　　处：《吉林农业科学》2013年第3期81-85,共5页Journal of　Jilin Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：2011国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY105)

摘　　要：从中国玉米总体需求趋势和需求结构的变化趋势着手,采用平均增长率预测法,测算了中国玉米的未来供求发展趋势。结果表明,到2020年,中国玉米国内当年消费量约为2.6亿t。饲料消费量约为1.77亿t,食物和其他消费约为7 625.6万t。玉米播种面积为0.37亿hm2,玉米总产量2.5亿t,单产水平为6 855kg/hm2。供需缺口约为1 000万t。由此得出,中国玉米的紧平衡状态或成为常态,政策应持续限制深加工玉米需求的增长。人口增长和耕地及水资源短缺,让依靠扩大耕地面积来增加玉米产量的余地很小,同时中国玉米的单产也高于世界平均水平,技术进步只有与改善农业生产条件相结合、或重点投资于农业基础设施建设,才有可能提升产量水平。Based on changing trend of Chinese corn overall demand trend and demand structure of the, the trend of Chinese corn supply and demand was estimated using the forecast method of average growth rate. The results showed that by the year 2020, China domestic corn consumption was about 260 million tons, feed consumption was about 177 million tons, food and other consumption was about 76.26 million tones. China has 0.37 million hm2 corn planting area, 250 million tons corn production, and 6855 kg per hectare. Even so, there will be an approximate 10 million tons gap between the supply and demand. The main conclusion was that Chinese corn tight balance will become the normal state, and the growth of industrial corn demand should be continuously limited. As population growth and cultivated land and water shortages, we had little room for expand cultivated land to increase corn production. At the same time; corn yield in China was also higher than the world average. Only by combination of technical progress with the improvement of agricultural production conditions, or with increase investment of agricultural infrastructure, the corn output will possibly raised.

关 键 词：玉米需求 玉米供给 饲料玉米 玉米深加工 

分 类 号：F304[经济管理—产业经济]