热带气旋强度极值变化特征及其分布模型研究  

VARIATION AND DISTRIBUTION MODELS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE EXTREME INTENSITY

作　　者：潘蔚娟[1,2,3] 王婷[2] 吴晓毅[4] 胡娅敏[2] 罗晓玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [2]广东省气候中心,广东广州510080 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100029 [4]广东省气象局影视中心,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2013年第3期374-380,共7页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：华南区域气象中心科技攻关项目(GRMC2012M05);广东省科技计划项目(2011A030200021);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-25)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1949—2009年西北太平洋生成热带气旋以及登陆广东热带气旋的强度资料,讨论了其极值变化特征,并对比了极值Ⅰ型和广义极值两种概率分布函数的3种拟合方案对西北太平洋生成和登陆广东热带气旋的5个强度极值序列的拟合效果。结果表明:CMA-STI和JTWC的2套资料的西北太平洋生成热带气旋强度极值在1949—2009年都有显著减弱趋势,CMA-STI的极值序列在1988年前后出现突变,而这种突变可能是由于定强手段变化引起的。CMA-STI登陆广东热带气旋强度极值在1988年前后也出现明显变化,但未能通过突变检验。热带气旋登陆广东时的极端最低气压以年际振荡为主,1988年前后没有明显变化。对西北太平洋生成和登陆广东的热带气旋的5个强度极值序列,选用的3种拟合方案都是适用的,并且所得拟合分布结果较为接近,其中以广义极值方案的拟合误差最小,拟合效果最好。By using intensity data of tropical cyclones （TCs） generating in the Northwestern Pacific and landing in Guangdong province from 1949 to 2009, this study investigates the variation of TC extreme intensity and obtains results for three kinds of fitting schemes for distribution functions of extreme-I and generalized extreme value （GEV） probability, compares five TC extreme intensity sequences. Results showed that extreme intensity of the TCs generating in the Northwestern Pacific significantly reduces from 1949 to 2009 for both China Meteorological Administration-Shanghai Typhoon Institute （CMA-STI） and JTWC data sets. The CMA-STI sequence exhibits statistically significant mutation for 1988, which is probably due to change in the means of determining TCs strength. Extreme intensity of TCs landing in Guangdong was also significantly reduced after 1988, but did not show any statistically significant mutation. Extreme minimum air pressure sequence of TCs landing in Guangdong province has no obvious change before and after 1988. The three selected fitting schemes are applicable for all the five extreme value sequences, and the GEV scheme has the minimum fitting error.

关 键 词：气候学 热带气旋强度极值 变化特征 分布模型 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]