Statistical Downscaling of Summer Temperature Extremes in Northern China  

作　　者：范丽军 Deliang CHEN 符淙斌 严中伟 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science [2]Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2013年第4期1085-1095,共11页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：jointly sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China "973" Program (Grant No. 2012CB956200);the Knowledge Innovation Project (Grant No. KZCX2-EW-202);the Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05090103) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

摘　　要：Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downseale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross- validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downsealing to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 （HadCM3） simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 （RCP 4.5） scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011- 35 relative to 1980-99.Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downseale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross- validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downsealing to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 （HadCM3） simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 （RCP 4.5） scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011- 35 relative to 1980-99.

关 键 词：indices of temperature extremes PERCENTILES statistical downscaling future scenarios projection. northern China 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]