齿轮传动可靠性预测之马尔科夫模型  

Forecasting of Gear Transmission Reliability Based on Markov Chain

作　　者：朱春伟[1] 任传胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学工程科学学院,安徽合肥230027

出　　处：《机械研究与应用》2013年第3期59-61,共3页Mechanical Research & Application

摘　　要：对齿轮传动数据分析,建立马尔科夫链的相关预测模型。对齿轮传动的失效状态进行等级划分,确定马尔科夫链的状态转移概率矩阵,进而用数学方法对齿轮传动的可靠性进行预测。通过对某10构件齿轮减速箱的可靠性进行预测,所得数据与真实数据基本一致,验证该模型的有效性。By analyzing the gear transmission data, Markov chain forecasting model is established. The gear invalid state is classified to determine the state transition probability matrix of the Markov chain, and then the reliability of the gear transmis- sion is predicted by using mathematical methods. By reliability prediction of ten parts of a gear gearbox, the result data is con- sistent with real data, and the validity of the model is verified.

关 键 词：齿轮传动 马尔科夫链 状态转移概率矩阵 可靠性预测 

分 类 号：TH13[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]