中国老年人带残预期寿命及疾病影响的城乡差异分析  

An Urban-rural Comparison of Life Expectancy with Disability and Relevant Disabling Diseases among Chinese Elderly

作　　者：陈鹤[1] 王灏晨[1] 陈功[1] 郑晓瑛[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《人口学刊》2013年第4期80-90,共11页Population Journal

基　　金：北京大学985和211项目(20020903);北京大学才斋奖学金(CZ201115)

摘　　要：为了明确各种疾病对我国城乡老年人残疾以及带残预期寿命的影响,本文基于第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据,首先对残疾现患率进行归因分析,得到分疾病的残疾现患率,然后结合死亡率数据,利用苏利文方法计算分疾病的带残预期寿命。结果显示,在60岁时,城市男性预期将有4.08年(城市女性:4.95年)生活在残疾状态中,低于农村男性的4.72年(农村女性:5.46年)。老年性耳聋、白内障、脑血管疾病、骨关节炎和未分类的伤害是老年人的最重要的5种致残疾病。而且,各种疾病对老年人的残疾现患率和带残预期寿命的影响存在明显的城乡差异。本研究为政府在城乡老年人中提出具有针对性的残疾预防战略提供了实证支持。In order to specify the impact of various diseases on the prevalence of disability and life expectancy with disability （LWD）,based on a nationally representative data,this study firstly attributed the prevalence of disability into diseases,and then calculated the LWD by diseases using mortality data and Sullivan method. Results show that, at age 60, male elderly in urban area was expected to live 4.08 years with disability （urban female：4.95 years）,which was lower than the LWD of 4.72 years among the male elderly in rural area （rural female： 5.46 years）. In addition, presbycusis, cataracts, cerebrovascular disease,osteoarthritis,and unclassified injury were the 5 most important diseases for LWD. And,obvious urban-rural difference existed in the influence of diseases on the prevalence of disability and LWD. This study provides evidence to facilitate better defining priorities in preventing disability among urban and rural elderly in China.

关 键 词：带残预期寿命 归因分析 城乡差异 

分 类 号：C913.69[经济管理]