人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响研究进展  

Advances in the Study of Anthropogenic Effects on the Drought and Flood Events

作　　者：邢子强[1] 严登华[1] 鲁帆[1] 马海娇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]华北水利水电大学水利学院,郑州450011

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2013年第6期1070-1082,共13页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)“气候变化对黄淮海地区水循环的影响机理和水资源安全评估”(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金项目(51021066)

摘　　要：人类活动对流域旱涝事件具有决定性影响,已经成为国内外热点研究问题之一。通过系统分析国内外人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响机理的研究,结果表明:人类活动导致大气温室气体和气溶胶含量上升,全球气候变化加剧,导致流域极端水文过程时空格局改变。另一方面,人类活动引起的土地退化将影响流域水资源时空分布和水循环过程,削弱流域防洪抗旱能力;水利工程的修建将增大流域储水状况,有效应对流域旱涝事件,但同时存在加剧流域旱涝事件的风险。此外,论文还概述了人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响的量化方法。The drought and the flood, which are strongly affected by artificial activities, have be come one of the hottest issues worldwide. In this study, we analyzed the advances in the mecha nisms of the drought and the flood events affected by the artificial activities, and the results showed that the increasing flux of greenhouse gases and concentration of aerosol in the atmosphere due to artificial activities have accelerated the globalclimate change process. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal patterns of the extreme hydrological processes have also been changed. In addi tion, the land degradation has altered the spatiotemporal distribution of water resource and the hydrological cycle, which has further weakened the ability of flood control and drought relief. Al though the hydrological projects can reallocate the water storage in the basin, to cope with the drought and flood events, however, it could also exacerbate the drought and flood in the mean time. Based on the results mentioned above, we further discussed the quantitative analytical meth ods of the influence from human activities upon the drought and the flood.

关 键 词：人类活动 流域旱涝事件 人为气候变化 土地利用变化 水利工程 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]