转型期台湾经济增长因素的实证研究——基于偏最小二乘法的分析  

A Study of Factors Contributing to Taiwan Economic Growth during the Transition Period——Empirical Analysis by Partial Least-Squares Regression

作　　者：邓利娟[1] 范芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究中心,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2013年第3期55-63,共9页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"经济依存与经济周期协动性研究:以两岸经济关系为例"(09BJL057);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"台湾经济转型研究"(06JJDGAT001)

摘　　要：本文在包含人力资本因素的指数型生产函数基础上,运用偏最小二乘法对20世纪80年代中期以来的台湾经济增长因素进行实证研究。主要结论为:劳动力和物质资本仍是台湾经济增长的重要因素;研究密度、对外投资的技术扩散、侨外投资及其技术扩散则均对台湾经济增长影响较小。21世纪台湾经济形势逆转,经济增长因素的影响呈现显著不同,表现为传统投入要素和人力资本对经济增长的促进作用逐渐呈弱化趋势;侨外投资的技术扩散对经济增长的作用进一步受到抑制;工业结构、对外投资和贸易技术扩散的积极影响逐渐增加。此外,贸易对经济增长的促进作用显现,而侨外投资、自主创新和服务业结构的积极作用则受到制约,弱化了经济增长。Based on exponential production function incorporating human capital, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors that have influenced Talwan economic growth since the middle of 1980s by using partial least-squares regression. The main results show that, 1 ） Labor and physical capital are still the main sources of economic growth. 2 ） Research density and technology diffusion of foreign investment as well as overseas Chinese and foreign investment and its technology diffusion have a relatively weak impact on Taiwan＇s economic growth. The Taiwan economic situation has reversed since the beginning of the 21 ~ century. The impact of the economic growth factors has been significantly different with the gradually weakening promo- tion of economic growth from the performance of the traditional investment factors and human capital, the further restraint of the technology diffusion of overseas investment upon the economic growth and the increase of the positive influences of the industrial structure, foreign investment and the trade and technology diffusion. In addition, the promotion of the economic growth by trade has appeared conspicuously while the positive roles of overseas investment, independent innovation and service structure have been checked, thus weakening the economic growth.

关 键 词：经济增长 人力资本 影响因素 偏最小二乘法 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]