大型装备研制技术风险指数测度极大熵博弈模型  

Measurement Model for Large-scale Project Technical Risk Index Based on the Maximum Entropy Game Theory of the Subject-object Player

作　　者：孙金玉[1] 方志耕[1] 袁潮清[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《系统工程》2013年第5期68-72,共5页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971064);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目(90924022);国家社科重大项目(10zd&014);教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(12YJC630276)

摘　　要：考虑大型装备研制项目的技术风险主要是由项目过程的不确定性和项目过程能力两个要素共同作用决定的,以单项技术为评价单元,建立一种新的风险博弈方基于极大熵准则选择博弈策略,项目主体方跟随风险博弈方的策略,以自身收益最大化的原则做出策略选择的博弈模型,并利用博弈双方的博弈收益值的映射关系表征技术风险指数。针对V 2500发动机技术展开算例研究,证明了上述模型及算法的有效性和可行性,为大型装备研制项目技术风险指数测度提供了一种新的分析方法和研究思路。Considering the technical risks of large-scale projects are mainly determined by two aspects of the uncertainty of the technical process and technical process capability, this paper has established of a new risk game model based on a single technique for the evaluation unit. In this model, risk object player make strategy choices based on the maximum entropy criterion, and technology subject palyer follow the strategy of the risk object palyer, making strategy choices on the principle of maximizing the return. By using the mapping relationship between object palyer＇s game profit and subject palyer＇s, the technique risk index has been represented. For the V2500 engine technology to expand the example to prove the effectiveness and feasibility of the above models and algorithms, which provides a new analytical methods and research train of thought.

关 键 词：技术风险指数 博弈 极大熵 主体-客体 

分 类 号：E252[军事—军事理论]