基于VAR模型的保障性住房对普通商品房挤出效应分析  

A VAR-based Study on the Impaction of the Affordable Housing to the Private Housing

作　　者：张跃松[1] 李桂君[2] 谢宇宁 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学,北京100872 [2]中央财经大学,北京100081 [3]深圳中海公司,深圳518026

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2013年第7期79-82,96,共5页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金项目"转型时期住房保障政策动态评价及干预调整机制研究"(项目编号12XNI005)

摘　　要：经济适用房制度作为我国住房保障政策的重要组成部分,其建设和销售对我国房地产业乃至国民经济都有很大的影响。本文基于VAR模型,选取了全国近14年来经济适用房和普通商品住房的销售量作为变量,对经济适用房的销售之于普通商品住房的影响进行分析。研究结果表明:我国经济适用房的开发建设与销售对普通商品房市场存在挤出效应,同时脉冲响应函数显示这种政策的影响会随着政策实施的时间推移而在波动中下降。通过Granger检验可以看出,经济适用房的销售量是普通商品住房销售量的Granger原因,而反之却不成立。由经济适用房的性质可知,经济适用房的销售量完全取决于其建设量,经济适用房每增加1%的建设量便会挤出0.254%的普通商品住房的销售量。The affordable housing serves as an important part of the housing security policy, which influ ences the general real estate market and national economic. Based on VAR model, the paper analysis and evalu ates the influence of the affordable to the private housing by using the data sample in the later 14years of the sales volume of both the affordable housing and the commercial housing as variables. The results indicate that the con struction and sale of the affordable housing will crowd out the private housing. And influence track indicate that this crowdin out will reduce in the fluctuation as the time fly.

关 键 词：经济适用房 挤出效应 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F293.31[经济管理—国民经济]