基于内集-外集的洪灾模糊风险分析  

Study on Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Flood Disasters Based on Interior-Outer-Set Model

作　　者：刁艳芳[1] 张荣 徐婧菡[1] 王刚[1] 王洪秀[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018 [2]山东省泰安市水文局,山东泰安271000

出　　处：《水力发电》2013年第7期14-16,共3页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41202174);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201201022);河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(2011490111)

摘　　要：我国洪涝灾害频繁发生,对我国人民的生命财产安全造成很大的危害,洪灾风险分析可为防洪规划和管理决策提供重要的依据。采用基于信息分配方法的内集—外集模型对洪灾进行模糊风险分析,以四川省洪灾数据为例说明该模型的具体应用。实例证明,此模型风险概念简单,数学逻辑清晰,计算简便,评估结果清楚,对防洪抗洪具有一定的指导意义。Flood disasters are frequently occurred in China and cause great damages to the security of both people＇s lives and properties. The risk analysis of flood disasters can provide important basis for the planning and decision-making of flood control and management. The interior-outer-set model based on information distribution method is adopted herein to analyze fuzzy risk of flood disasters, and it is applied to ealculate the fuzzy flood disaster risk in Sichuan Province. The case study shows that the interior-outer-set model is simple in eoneept, elear in mathematical logic, easy in computation and clear in evaluation result. The model has certain signifieanee to flood control.

关 键 词：内集-外集 洪灾 模糊风险 风险分析 可能性-概率 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]