基于概率及结构重要度的电力系统事故链模型与仿真  

Power system fault chain model and simulation based on probability and structural importance

作　　者：王涛[1] 王兴武[1] 顾雪平[1] 贾京华[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003 [2]河北电力调度通信中心,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2013年第7期51-56,共6页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51077052);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(13MS108)~~

摘　　要：通过分析电力系统连锁故障的一般演化规律,在已有的事故链模型基础上,提出一种同时考虑事故概率重要度和设备在网络中的结构重要度的事故链中间环节的预测指标。采用离差最大化的灰色关联度算法综合考虑各类指标,构建电网连锁故障的事故链搜索模型。采用IEEE-RTS系统仿真得到风险值较大的事故链集合,仿真结果验证了所提模型的有效性。The general evolution pattern of power system cascading failure is analyzed and a prediction index is proposed for the intermediate events of fault chain based on the present fault chain model,which considers both the probability importance of fault and the structural importance of equipment in network. The grey rational algorithm with maximum deviation is used to comprehensively consider various indicators and a fault chain search model is built for power system cascading failure. Simulation on IEEE-RTS system is carried out to obtain the fault chain set with larger risk value and the simulative result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model.

关 键 词：电力系统 连锁故障 大停电 事故链 故障分析 多属性决策 模型 仿真 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] TM711[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]