基于情景推演的地震灾害演化动态GERT网络模型  

Scenario inference-based dynamic GERT network model for evolution of earthquake disasters

作　　者：周愉峰[1] 马祖军[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学经济管理学院物流与应急管理研究所,四川成都610031

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第3期68-75,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70771094;90924012);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-10-0706);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(08JC630067);四川省青年科技基金项目(09ZQ026-021);四川省学术和技术带头人培养资金项目(川人社办发[2011]441号);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(SWJTU11CX152)

摘　　要：地震发生后,各种原生、次生以及衍生灾害相互耦合、演化,且在灾害耦合、演化过程中又伴有不同力度的抢险救灾行为,准确描述这一过程有助于有效应对和缓解灾情。为此,在传统的GERT网络模型的基础上,建立了一个基于情景推演的地震灾害演化的动态GERT网络模型,较好地解决了地震灾害相互耦合关系的定性和定量描述问题以及网络模型的动态修正和优化问题,为地震灾害演化的预测与分析提供了一种新的研究思路。After an earthquake, all kinds of primary disasters, derived disasters and secondary disasters couple and evolve mutually or together. The coupling and evolution process is often accompanied by different intensity of rescue and relief actions. Accurately describing the process is of great significance to deal with and relieve the disaster situation. Based on classical GERT （Graph Evaluation and Review Technique ） network model and scenario inference, a dynamic GERT network model for the evolution of earthquake disaster was developed herein. The problems of qualitative and quantitative description of mutual coupling relationships in earthquake disasters, and dynamic correction and optimization of the network model are well solved. The approach presents a new idea for the prediction and analysis of earthquake disaster evolution.

关 键 词：地震 灾害演化 GERT网络 情景推演 

分 类 号：C931.2[经济管理—管理学]