塔里木河流域枯水径流演变特征、成因与影响研究  

Study on evolution characters,cause and influence of low water flow in Tarim River Basin

作　　者：孙鹏[1,2] 张强[1,2] 陈晓宏[1,2] 陈永勤[3] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]香港中文大学地理与资源管理系

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第3期135-143,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071020;50839005);水利部公益项目(201001066);新疆自治区科技攻关项目(200931105);新世纪优秀人才支持计划

摘　　要：利用非参数Mann-Kandall趋势检验法和线性趋势法分析了塔河流域枯水流量变化特征,并探讨了其可能的成因与影响。研究结果表明:(1)塔河流域河源径流量主要集中在6-8月,塔河干流径流量变化大于源流,流量主要集中在7-9月;(2)卡群站枯水流量在1999年前呈增大趋势,之后呈减小趋势;其余各站枯水流量呈先减后增的趋势。枯水流量增大的主要原因是气温和降雨量的提高;(3)枯水出现时间与干旱年份较为一致,能很好反映流域的干旱情况。With non-parametric Mann-Kandall trend test and linear trend method, this paper analyzed the change characters of low water flow in Tarim River Basin and explored the formation cause and influence of this change. Research results show that, （1） the lification flow in Tarim River Basin mainly occurs from June to August, and the runoff change of the trunk stream is larger than that of the lification and mainly concentrates on July to September. （2） Low water flow in Kaqun Station presents an increasing trend before the year 1999 and then decreases, while other stations＇ trends decrease first and then increase. The main for low water flow increase in later stage lies in the rise of air temperature and increase of rainfall. （3） The occurring time of low water flow is consistent with the drought years, which can reflect well the drought situation of the basin.

关 键 词：枯水流量 趋势分析 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]