京津冀都市圈地震灾害脆弱性评价及城际差异分析  

Earthquake disaster vulnerability evaluation and difference analysis of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle

作　　者：冯领香[1] 冯振环[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学商学院,天津300222

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第3期160-167,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJL055)

摘　　要：为了从自然、社会、经济等多个角度探讨地震灾害脆弱性,基于统计年鉴及由其整理获取的数据资料建立了评价指标体系,采用根据地震样本经过神经网络训练获得的权重数值,利用灰色理论对区域地震灾害脆弱性进行了评价。最后作为案例,给出了京津冀都市圈10市的地震脆弱性评价,并分析了权重变化对评价结果的影响。结果表明,京津冀都市圈防震减灾投入的不平衡程度较高,廊坊、保定、张家口、承德、沧州等市地震脆弱性显著;总体来说,经济因素对地震脆弱性排序的影响占据了首要地位。This paper discussed the earthquake disaster vulnerability from the natural, social and economic views and established the evaluation index system based on statistical yearbook was. Making use of the weights obtained from earthquake samples by neural network training and grey theory, regional vulnerability to earthquake disaster was evaluated. Then, a case study earthquake disaster vulnerability evaluation was provided, which include ten cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle, and the effects of weights on the evaluation was discussed. Results show that, earthquake disaster reduction input among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle is obviously unbalanced. The vulnerability of Langfang, Baoding, Zhangjiakou, Chengde, Cangzhou is at high level. In general, economic factor has the greatest influence on the evaluation result.

关 键 词：地震脆弱性 评价 灰色理论 京津冀都市圈 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] F207[天文地球—固体地球物理学]