中国上市银行透明度研究——分析师盈利预测和市场同步性的证据  

Transparency of China's Listed Banks:Evidence from Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Price Synchronicity

作　　者：李春涛[1] 胡宏兵[1] 谭亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《金融研究》2013年第6期118-132,共15页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费(No.31541110516);211人才引进经费(No.31540910515)对本研究的资助

摘　　要：本文以分析师盈利预测分歧、预测误差和股价的市场同步性作为上市公司不透明程度的测度指标,比较了我国商业银行和普通工商企业在透明度上的差异。研究结果表明:分析师对商业银行盈利的预测分歧较小、预测误差较低,银行股价的市场同步性明显低于非银行上市公司,即中国上市银行在财务透明度上优于普通工商企业。本文还发现,虽然分析师预测可能存在羊群效应,但较多的分析师跟踪仍然能降低预测误差和增加股票价格的信息含量,从而增加公司的透明度。Using analyst earnings forecast dispersion, forecast error and stock market synchronicity as measurement indicators for the opacity of listed firms, this paper compares the opaqueness between China＇s listed banks and other non - financial listed firms. We find that the analysts＇ forecasts are more consistent and accurate for banking firms, and the stock prices of banks reflect more firm - specific information and less likely to reflect market information. Those evidences jointly indicate that the banking industry is more transparent. ？ More analysts following, even there may exist some degree of herding, can still increase forecasting accuracy and the information content of stock prices, thus increase corporate transparency. Policy implications are provided in the

关 键 词：银行 不透明度 分析师 

分 类 号：F832.3[经济管理—金融学] F224