利用马尔科夫过程预测景电灌区土地利用景观格局的变化  

Pridiction of the Changes of Landscape Patterns of Jingtaichuan Electric Pumping Irrigation District using Markov Chain Model

作　　者：林长伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]定西师范高等专科学校地理系,甘肃定西743000

出　　处：《甘肃高师学报》2013年第2期74-76,共3页Journal of Gansu Normal Colleges

摘　　要：在RS与GIS技术的支持下,利用景电灌区1999年、2006年两期Landsat TM影像数据,通过目视解译获得研究区1999年到2006年灌区的土地景观转化数据,在此基础上利用马尔科夫预测模型模拟和预测景电灌区的土地景观变化.结果表明:在忽略政策、自然因素等的干扰下,随着灌区的进一步开发建设,耕地、建设用地逐渐增多,草地和未利用地持续下降.The changes of landscape patterns of Jingtaichuan Electric Pumping Irrigation District during 1999 ～2006 have been analyzed in this paper by using RS,GIS and FRAGSTATS,which are based on the Landsat TM images（band4,band3 and band2）,in years 1999,2006.On this basis,using Markov Chian Model to simulate and predict the changes of landscape patterns of the study area.The results indicate that： ignored policy and natural Interference factors,along with the further development and construction of the irrigation area,farmland and constructed land will be gradually increasing,unutilized land and grassland continuing to decline.

关 键 词：马尔科夫模型 景观格局变化 景电灌区 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]