城市规模与产出关系的分形研究——以新疆城市为例  

A FRACTAL STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBAN POPULATION SIZE AND CITY GDP: WITH XINJIANG AS AN EXAMPLE

作　　者：高志刚[1] 韩延玲[2] 张凌志[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院 [2]新疆财经大学统计与信息学院

出　　处：《城市规划》2013年第6期37-40,46,共5页City Planning Review

基　　金：国家社科基金项目<经济全球化视角下的新疆区域竞争力多维评价与对策研究>(07XJY002)阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于新疆19个主要城市1995-2007年的规模和产出时间序列数据,利用具有分形性质的城市规模-产出模型对新疆城市规模与产出的因果关系进行探讨,得出一些主要结论与启示:城市规模-产出关系的分形模型用于新疆城市个体时拟合效果良好,而对于新疆城市体系则相关性不高;新疆城市规模与城市产出一般呈正相关,但城市规模不是城市产出的决定性因素;新疆城市体系在自组织演化过程中没有出现良性发展态势;城市产出效益与城市规模无相关性,但与城市规模等级分布密切相关,可以作为城市体系的系统结构优化的定量判据之一,这从理论上揭示了合理的城市体系结构是决定城市产出能力的重要因素。因此,合理发展大城市,完善新疆城市体系的规模等级结构有利于新疆经济社会的跨越式发展。Based on data of population size and city GDP from 1995 to 2007 in 19 primary cities of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and by applying the fractal model, the paper proves that under normal circumstances, the larger the urban population size, the higher the city GDP; and that the city production efficiency determines the urban population size, while the latter affects the city GDP. The fractal model is well applied to individual cities of Xinjiang, but shows low relativity degree to the city sYstem of Xinjiang, which indicates that the parameter for city production efficiency, i.e., the general dimension of b, is not relevant to the urban population size, i.e., S, but is relevant to the distribution of the urban population size. Therefore, it can be used as one of the quantitative criteria for the system optimization of city system, which in turn reveals that rational city system structure is akey factor deciding the city GDP volume.

关 键 词：城市规模 城市产出 城市体系 分形 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F224