生物反恐应急管理中的协同决策理论  

Collaborative Decision-making Theory in Emergency Management of Anti-bioterrorism

作　　者：刘明[1] 萧毅鸿[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《南京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第4期31-38,共8页Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology：Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(11YJCZH109);南京理工大学经管青年教师研究基金项目(JGQN1102)

摘　　要：应急决策比任何常规决策更能考验政府的决策机制和决策能力,生物恐怖事件发生后的应急决策尤其如是。本文通过引入协同决策理论和方法,在生物危险源扩散网络与应急物流网络协同机制方面,分析了生物危险源扩散演化方法和应急资源时变需求预测模式,提出了"演化—预测—配置"的生物反恐应急协同决策模式;在应急物流网络协同优化机制方面,重点挖掘了多种应急物资混合协同配送机制、多层次多部门应急物流网络动态协同机制以及有补给源和无补给源情况下的应急救援协同机制。通过不同视角探讨了生物反恐应急协同决策生成理论,为政府应急管理部门提供决策参考。Emergency decision - making, especially in the case of anti - bioterrorism, is more testing and demanding than a rou- tine one, to governmental decision - making mechanism and its decision - making ability. Starting with an introduction to the col- laborative decision - making theory and method, this article analyzes the collaborative mechanism between the biological virus dif- fusion network and the emergency logistics network, and between biological virus diffusion evolution methods and the time - var- ying forecasting of emergency demands. A collaborative ＂evolution - forecasting - allocation＂ decision - making model is con- strneted for anti - bioterrorism emergency rescue. In terms of the collaborative optimization of the emergency logistics networks, this article focuses on multiple dynamic and collaborative mechanisms formed by distribution methods of mixed emergency rescue resources, by the multi - level and multi - department emergency logistics networks, and by emergency rescue with - and/or without - supply resources. With the general collaborative decision - making theory being reviewed from different perspectives, research resuhs are bound to provide an effective decision support for governmental emergency administrative departments.

关 键 词：生物反恐 扩散演化 时变需求 协同决策 应急物流 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]