甘肃临夏高寒干旱地区玉米种植气候区划与产量的气候预测  

Climate prediction of corn regionalization and yield in frigid and arid area in Linxia,Gansu

作　　者：孙玉莲[1,2] 边学军 黄成秀 马旭洁 张淑芳 石登科 王琨 刘辉 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所、甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室和中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省临夏州气象局,甘肃临夏731100

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第6期49-55,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201006);公益性行业(气象)科研专项“西北地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究”(GYHY200806021)

摘　　要：【目的】分析甘肃临夏高寒干旱地区玉米的气候生态条件,并进行了玉米适生气候区划及玉米产量的气候预测,为高寒干旱地区充分利用气候资源,调整作物布局提供技术支撑。【方法】以农业气象学和农业气候学为指导,采用1988-2008年临夏地区玉米产量资料和1971-2009年农业气象资料,结合生产调查和1988-2008年物候资料,分析研究了影响甘肃临夏玉米生长的关键生育期及主要气象因子,对该区的玉米适生种植区进行区划,并建立临夏地区玉米各生育期时空动态气候预测模型。【结果】临夏各地玉米种植区海拔高度不同,全生育期≥10℃活动积温和降水量差异很大,根据玉米生育期对气象条件的要求及临夏州气候特点,确定临夏玉米种植最适宜区为海拔1 800m以下地区,适宜种植中熟、晚熟品种;适宜区为海拔1 800～1 900m,适宜种植中熟、中晚熟品种;次适宜区为海拔1 900～2 000m地区,适宜种植早中熟、中熟品种;可种植区为海拔2 000～2 300m,属高寒阴湿气候,以种植早熟品种为主;不可种植区为海拔2 400m以上地区,由于热量条件严重不足,难以达到玉米气候生态条件,不宜种植。建立的玉米苗期、抽雄期和成熟期3个阶段的产量气候预测方程,预测准确率均达80%以上。【结论】根据预测模型和气象因子可以科学制定种植结构并调整规划,以指导临夏地区玉米的科学种植,促进农业增效和农民增收。【Objective】 This study analyzed physiological characteristics of corn,regionalized suitable planting areas for corn,and predicted yield of corn to improve the utilization of climate resources and adjustment of crop layout in alpine region.【Method】 Using agro-meteorological and agro-climatologically methods,product data of corn from 1988 to 2008,agricultural meteorology data from 1971 to 2009,and phenology data from 1988 to 2008 were used to analyze the key periods during growth of corn and major meteorological factors,regionalize suitable planting areas and establish a dynamic climate model.【Result】 The altitudes,accumulated temperature greater than or equal to 10 ℃ and precipitation of corn planting area in Linxia were significantly different.According to the growth of corn on the meteorological conditions and climate characteristics of Linxia,areas with altitude less than or equal to 1 800 meters were most suitable for late-maturing corn,areas with altitude between 1 800 and 1 900 meters were suitable for late-maturing corn,areas with altitude between 2 000 and 2 300 meters were suitable for early-maturing corn,and areas with altitude greater than 2 400 meters were unsuitable for corn.The established model including seeding stage,tasseling stage and maturing stage could predict corn yield with accuracy greater than 80%.【Conclusion】 The regionalization and established model can make scientific planting structure,adjust planting plan,guide scientific planting,promote agricultural synergism,and farmer income.

关 键 词：高寒干旱地区 玉米 气候区划 产量预测模型 甘肃临夏 

分 类 号：S162.2[农业科学—农业气象学] S513.047[农业科学—农业基础科学]