山东省夏玉米产量波动及影响因素分析  

Analysis on Yield Fluctuation of Summer Corn and Influence Factors in Shandong Province

作　　者：刘锋[1] 王丽丽[1] 秦磊磊[1] 张晓艳[1] 王利民[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省农业科学院科技信息工程技术研究中心,山东济南250100

出　　处：《山东农业科学》2013年第6期58-60,共3页Shandong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：山东省科技发展计划项目(2012GGC02002);山东省科技发展计划项目(2012GNC11019)"山东冬小麦干旱预警关键技术研究与应用"资助;国家科技支撑计划项目"粮食生产风险智能分析与预警关键技术集成研究与示范"(2009BADA9B03);山东省农业重大应用技术创新课题"小麦生产风险智能分析与预警关键技术研究"

摘　　要：根据周期波动规律对1970～2007年山东省玉米生产状况进行了分析。结果表明,山东省玉米生产有以下特征:一是玉米生产的波动是以增长为背景的波动,周期长度不规则,波动幅度大;二是波动类型基本符合古典型波动;三是扩张期长于收缩期。影响玉米产量波动的主要因素是粮食政策和自然灾害。Based on the rule of periodic fluctuation, the corn production status in 1970 -2007 in Shan- dong Province was analyzed. The results showed that the corn production in Shandong Province characteristics as followed. Firstly, the corn production fluctuated with increasing as the background, and also with irregular cycle length and large fluctuation range. Secondly, the fluctuation was largely in line with the classical type. Finally, the expansion period was longer than contraction period. Food policy and natural haz- ard were the main factors influencing the fluctuation of corn yield.

关 键 词：山东省 夏玉米 产量波动 影响因素 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]