服务贸易对海峡两岸经济增长贡献度实证研究  

Comparative Research on the Contribution of the Cross-Strait Services Trade to Economic Growth

作　　者：尹晓波[1] 钟小英[1] 洪鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第4期455-459,共5页Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(11CJY104);福建省软科学基金资助项目(2010R0075)

摘　　要：通过服务贸易发展规模与增长、服务贸易进出口总额占GDP比重、服务贸易结构三方面,对海峡两岸服务贸易的发展现状进行比较研究.基于Balassa开放经济下出口扩展型总量生产函数,构建风险价值(VaR)模型,对海峡两岸服务贸易对经济增长的贡献度进行实证分析.实证结果表明:无论经济是处于高速发展阶段还是受到经济危机的影响,服务贸易对大陆、台湾经济持续增长都起着决定性的作用.最后,在实证研究的基础上提出对海峡两岸服务贸易进一步发展的对策.In this article we have done a comparative research on the development of the cross-strait service trade through the following three aspects： the scale and growth of the development of service trade,the ratio of the total volume of import and export of service trade to the GDP and the structure of service trade,built a value at risk（VaR） model based on the function of the extended aggregate production under the open economy of Balassa,and discussed the contribution of the cross-strait service trade to the economic growth,which shows that the service trade has playing a decisive role in continued growth of the cross-strait economy,and finally suggested some proposals for the further development of cross-strait service trade based on the cases study.

关 键 词：风险价值模型 海峡两岸 服务贸易 经济增长 贡献度 

分 类 号：O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计] F752[理学—数学]