我国经济发展与离婚率关系的计量分析——基于VAR方法  

The Analysis of Measurement between the Divorce Rate and Economy Development in Our Country: Based on the VAR Method

作　　者：赵燕[1] 孙红兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学理学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《价值工程》2013年第20期8-11,共4页Value Engineering

基　　金：云南省应用基础研究计划面上项目<云南省地区经济增长差异和效率研究>(2011FZ044)资助

摘　　要：改革开放以来,随着经济的发展,我国的离婚率持高不下。目前,越来越多的人关心中国离婚率的相关问题。文章基于VAR模型,采用协整分析,格兰杰因果分析,脉冲响应函数和方差分析法,发现离婚率与GDP增长率存在长期的正向协整关系,其长期弹性为0.11,GDP增长率是离婚率的单向格兰杰原因。脉冲响应和方差分解表明,GDP增长率对离婚率有影响但影响不太大,而离婚率对GDP增长率基本无影响。Since the reform and opening, China＇s divorce rate is high with the development of economy. At present, more and more people are concerned about China＇s divorce rate related problems. Based on VAR model, this paper uses the co-integration analysis, granger causality analysis, impulse response function and variance analysis, found that the divorce rate and GDP growth has long-term positive co-integration relationship, period of elasticity of 0.11 for a long time, the GDP growth rate is the rate of one-way granger reason. Impulse response and variance decomposition show that the GDP growth have impact but not too big on divorce rate, and the divorce rate of GDP growth rate had no effect on basic.

关 键 词：离婚率 GDP增长率 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]