时间序列模型在建三江分局地下水位预测中的应用  

Application of Time Series Model to Predict Groundwater Level in Jiansanjiang Branch Bureau

作　　者：孙凤英 张永峰 肖鹏[2] 刘东[2] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江农垦勘测设计研究院,哈尔滨150090 [2]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2013年第5期37-40,共4页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

摘　　要：由于水田面积大量增加,导致建三江分局部分地区地下水超采,出现地下水水位持续下降等现象。为解决此问题,以八五九农场为例,采用时间序列分析方法建立了八五九农场地下水埋深动态预测模型,揭示了该地区的地下水动态变化规律,为建三江分局及整个三江平原地下水资源的可持续利用与发展提供了观测分析依据。As the area of paddy field increased largely, 1 groundwater , groundwater level is declining gradually eading to the p in partial regi henomenon of overexploitation of ons of Jiansanjiang Branch Bu- reau. In order to solve this problem, taking Bawujiu Farm as an example, using time series analysis method, the groundwater depth dynamic prediction model is established in Bawujiu Farm , it reveals the law of groundwater dynamic changes in the area, providing a scientific basis for the sustainable utiliza- tion and development of groundwater resources in the Jiansanjiang Branch Bureau and the SanjiangPlain.

关 键 词：时间序列 地下水埋深 八五九农场 预测模型 回归分析 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]