我国教育扩张对就业变动的动态影响研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

The Dynamic Impacts of China's Education Expansion on Employment Growth ——Based on the VAR Model

作　　者：路平[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学中国中部发展研究院,湖北武汉430072 [2]中州大学德育教学部,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《经济经纬》2013年第4期99-103,共5页Economic Survey

摘　　要：大学生就业难是当前社会普遍关注的话题。教育扩张被认为是引起大学生就业难的最直接、最重要的原因。为此,作者利用Ganger因果关系检验和VAR模型分析研究我国教育支出和就业之间的相互作用关系,研究结果表明,教育支出是就业增长率的Ganger原因,教育支出对就业增长率不但具有显著正向的即期效应,而且具有显著的滞后效应。但是,找不到就业引致教育支出变动的证据。最后,作者建议政府要积极增加教育支出,提高公共教育资源的使用效率,推进我国人力资本积累,从而提升就业率的有效增加和就业结构优化。Traditional economic theory believe that education play an important role on the economy and employment growth. The contribution of education to economic development is realized through the increased investment on the human capital, the greater ratio of education on human capital, the greater contribution on economic development, and thus the corresponding employment growth. This paper analyzes the interaction between China＇ s education expansions and employment rate by Ganger causality test and VAR model. The study reveals that education expense is the Ganger reason for employment growth rate; education expense has not only a significant positive temporary effect but also a significant lag effect on employment growth rate. But we cannot find the evidence for that employment will lead to the change of education expense. Finally, this study suggests that the government should increase education expense initiatively, improving the use efficiency of public education resources, promoting China＇ s human capital accumulation, so as to enhance the effective increase of the employment rate and the employment structure optimization.

关 键 词：教育支出 就业 VAR模型 Ganger因果关系 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]