加强需求侧管理提高燃气负荷预测水平  

City Gas Load Prediction and Demand Side Management

作　　者：李瑜仙[1] 关鸿鹏[1] 赵燕 

机构地区：[1]北京市燃气集团有限责任公司,北京100035 [2]中国石油集团工程设计有限责任公司西南分公司,四川成都610041

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2013年第3期14-16,6-7,共3页Natural Gas and Oil

摘　　要：为了做好城市燃气需求侧管理,完善上下游供、用气运营模式,确保燃气供应安全稳定,以北京为例,分析了北方城市燃气用气特点以及用气负荷与影响因素之间的关系,推荐了冬季采暖期、夏季低峰期和采暖过渡期适宜采用的预测方法;根据天然气国际购销一体化趋势的前瞻性需求,探讨了供、用气计划运营模式,通过为客户建立计划"平衡账户",从经济层面制约用户,以提高负荷预测精度并降低未来天然气市场国际化带来的"照付不议"风险。In order to strengthen city gas demand side management,optimize the operation mode of upstream and downstream gas supply and consumption and ensure safe and stable gas supply,Beijing city gas supply and consumption is taken for an example,analyzed are the characteristics of northern city gas consumption and the relationship between gas load and impact factors and recommended are suitable gas supply and consumption prediction methods for winter heating period,summer low gas consumption period and heating transitional period.According to international marketing integration trend of prospective demand,discussed are various operation modes of gas supply and consumption.Established is the 'balance account' for customers in order to improve the load prediction accuracy and reduce the risk of 'take-or-pay'in future natural gas market internationalization.

关 键 词：燃气负荷 需求侧管理 预测 方法 计划模式 平衡账户 

分 类 号：TU996.3[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]