公明水库大坝风险排序研究  

Research on Risk Sort of Dams Group of Gongming Reservoir

作　　者：黄凌[1] 宋洋[2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市水务工程建设管理中心,广东深圳518048 [2]中国民航大学,天津300300

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第3期31-35,共5页Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金(2009CDZ038)

摘　　要：本文以深圳市公明供水调蓄工程为背景,考虑了大坝群自身安全与水库下游公共安全.采用了专家经验法对公明水库大坝的溃坝概率进行了评估,并利用生命损失严重程度、经济损失严重程度及社会与环境影响指数等参数对溃坝后果进行了量化分析.采用层次分析法确定了溃坝后果影响因素的权重系数,得出了溃坝后果综合系数.依据溃坝概率和溃坝后果综合系数计算出每座大坝的风险指数,并以风险指数为指标对大坝群进行风险排序,使风险大的大坝优先得到设计和施工加强.The security of dams group and public safety downstream both have been taken into consideration at the background of Shenzhen Gongming Water Supply Storage Project. The failure probability of Gongming Reservoir dams group has been evaluated with the method of expert experience. Meanwhile, dam failure con- sequences have been analyzed quantitatively through calculating the factors of life loss severity, economic loss severity and the impact on social and environment. Then, the weight coefficients of the influence factors of dam failure consequences have been calculated through analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, comprehen- sive coefficients of dam failure are obtained. Then, risk indices have been calculated with failure probability of dam and comprehensive coefficients of dam failure. So, the dams group can be ranked with risk indices; and the high-risk dams could have the priority to be strengthened through design and construction.

关 键 词：大坝 风险管理 风险排序 公明水库 

分 类 号：TV64[水利工程—水利水电工程] X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]