吉林省能源消费与经济增长:基于误差修正模型的实证分析  

Jilin Energy Consumption and Economic Growth:Empirical-based Analysis of Error Correction Model

作　　者：吴翔[1] 刘璇[2] 宁华光[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学 经济管理学院,吉林吉林132012 [2]兰州大学经济学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《东北电力大学学报》2013年第3期74-77,共4页Journal of Northeast Electric Power University

基　　金：东北电力大学博士科研启动基金项目(BSJXM-200910)

摘　　要："十二五"期间,吉林省面临着加快经济发展和节能减排的双重任务。因此,研究吉林省能源消耗与经济增长之间的关系具有重要的现实意义。运用协整技术和误差修正模型,对1980年-2009年期间吉林省能源消费与经济增长之间的水平值(对数变量)的时间序列进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,吉林省能源消耗与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且存在经济增长到能源消耗的单向因果关系。最后,在实证研究的基础上提出吉林省经济增长与节能降耗的对策建议。In ＂Twelve Five＂ period, Jilin province is being facing the dual task of speeding up economic and energy saving. Therefore, the study of the relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth has an important significance. This paper applied cointegration techniques and error correct model for the empirical studies on the relationship between the level time series data of real GDP and data of energy consumption for the period of 1980 -2009 of Jilin province. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth in Jilin province, and there is one-way causality from economic growth to energy consumption. policy recommendations of the Jilin Province＇ Finally, based on the empirical research, we propose appropriate s economic growth and energy saving.

关 键 词：能源消费 协整 误差修正模型 GRANGER因果关系 经济增长 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]