基于MCMC方法优化的港口交通系统风险仿真  

Risk simulation of port traffic system optimized based on MCMC method

作　　者：徐广波[1,2] 胡甚平[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]江阴海事局,江苏江阴214431

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2013年第2期13-16,共4页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：广东省交通运输厅科技项目(201202004);上海海事大学校基金(20120057)

摘　　要：为获得较为准确的港口交通系统风险分布,提高港口风险管理能力,在港口交通风险定量化评估的基础上,得出交通事故率和事故后果的贝叶斯概率统计,构建基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(Markov Chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)方法的港口交通系统风险仿真模型.利用WinBUGS软件,通过MCMC方法对该模型进行参数推断和优化;并在此基础上对港口交通系统风险进行仿真实验,得出风险度分布曲线.实例表明,优化后的仿真模型能更好地反映港口交通系统风险的趋势,为港口安全管理决策提供支持.To master a more accurate risk distribution of port traffic system and improve port risk management ability, based on quantitative assessment on port traffic risk, Bayesian probability statistics of accident rate and accident consequence are obtained. Then a risk simulation model of port traffic system based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method is built. WinBUGS software and MCMC method are used to realize the parametric inference and optimization of the model. A risk simulation test of a port traffic system is carried out, and distribution curves with specific risk values are obtained. The example proves that the optimized simulation model can better reflect risk trend of port traffic system and serve with decision support to port safety administration.

关 键 词：港口交通 系统风险 蒙特卡罗仿真 马尔可夫链 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U656.5[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]