通货膨胀的门槛效应与中国经济增长  

The Threshold effect of Inflation and Economic Growth of China

作　　者：唐雪莲[1] 建克成[2] 

机构地区：[1]安庆师范学院团委,安徽安庆246000 [2]安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2013年第7期44-47,共4页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10CJY016)

摘　　要：迄今为止,通货膨胀与经济增长之间关系仍然是一个争而未决的难题。文章通过建立一个旨在说明通货膨胀与经济增长之间关系的非线性面板门限回归模型,并以通货膨胀变化率作为门限变量以及利用我国1985-2011年的省际面板数据进行实证检验发现:通货膨胀变化率小于门限变量0.0800时,通货膨胀可以促进经济增长,当通货膨胀变化率位于门限变量0.520与0.0800之间时,通货膨胀对经济增长的正向拉动作用最为明显;然而当通货膨胀变化率高于较大的第二个门限值时,通货膨胀则与经济增长负相关。因此,文章认为控制通货膨胀的相对增长速度与其绝对水平同样重要。the relationship between inflation and economic growth is still a pending issue so far. This paper establishes a non-linear panel threshold model to illustrate the relationship between inflation and economic growth, and selects the inflation rate change as the threshoht variable. By using the provincial panel data of empirical testing in China from 1985 to 2011 years, we found that when the inflation rate of change is lower than the threshold variable 0.0800, the inflation can promote economic growth. What＇ s more, when the change in the threshoht variable is between 0.520 and 0.0800, the positive effect of inflation in boosting economic growth is more obvious. However, when the change is higher than the larger of the second threshold value, the inflation is negatively correlated with economic growth. Therefore, the control of inflation relative growth rate is considered as important as absolute level control.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 面板门限回归模型 非线性效应 经济增长 

分 类 号：F820.5[经济管理—财政学]