基于产量的海南省香蕉寒害风险分析与区划  

Cold-damage risk analysis and division of banana production in Hainan Province of South China based on yield

作　　者：蔡大鑫[1] 王春乙[1] 张京红[2] 刘少军[2] 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所,南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口570203 [2]海南省气候中心,海口570203

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2013年第7期1896-1902,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41175096);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106024)资助

摘　　要：根据海南省1990—2010年的香蕉产量数据,采用线性滑动平均、回归分析、信息扩散等方法,建立了香蕉理论收获面积模型,实现了寒害与其他气象灾害减产率的分离,构建了香蕉产量寒害危险性评价模型,结合地区间种植规模的差异,开展了海南省香蕉产量寒害风险区划。结果表明:海南省香蕉产量寒害危险性较高的区域主要存在于北部、中部和西部,其中儋州的危险等级为全岛最高,南部、东南部和西南部的危险性较低;种植规模较大的地区主要分布在北部和西部的沿海市县;风险以低级别为主,五指山的风险最高,澄迈、海口和昌江略低,东部沿海地区和南部三亚的风险最低,基本不受寒害影响。Based on the banana production data of Hainan Province in 1990-2010, and by using the methods of linear moving average, regression analysis, and information diffusion, a model for calculating the theoretical harvest area of banana was developed, which could distinguish the relative contribution of cold weather hazard to the reduction rate of banana yield from other weather hazards. Then, the model of the colddamage risk assessment for banana production was developed, and the risk division of banana production in Hainan Province was conducted. The results showed that the higher dangerous regions of banana cold-damage were located in the north, middle, and west parts of Hainan Island, and the danger rank was the highest in Danzhou. The lower hazard areas were mainly located in the south, southeast, and southwest parts. However, banana was widely planted in the northern and western coastal cities/counties. In most parts, the cold-damage risk was at low level. The risk was the highest in Wuzhishan, followed by in Chengmai, Haikou and Changjiang, and the lowest in east coastal areas and Sanya, where the banana production was almost not affected by cold weather hazard.

关 键 词：香蕉 寒害 产量风险 区划 海南省 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济] S426[农业科学—植物保护] S668.1S426