考虑公众心理风险感知的应急物资优化调度  

Emergency supplies optimal scheduling considering the public's psychological risk perception

作　　者：王旭坪[1] 马超[1] 阮俊虎[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学系统工程研究所,大连116023

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第7期1735-1742,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(90924006;71171029);中央高校基本科研业务费资助

摘　　要：将行为科学理论融入了突发事件发生后的应急物资优化调度问题研究中,提出应急物资调度决策应注意考虑公众的心理因素.用前景理论刻画了公众对应急物资获得时间的风险感知程度定义并选取公众心理预期时间作为时间参考点,得出了风险感知曲线和函数模型.构建了以最小化公众心理风险感知程度和物资未满足度为目标的混合整数规划模型.设计了相应的多层搜索求解算法.最后的数值实验证实了模型和算法的有效性.This paper integrated the behavioral science theory into rehe~ suppnes optimal scneaunng mte~ emergency events, and proposed that the public＇s psychological factors should be taken into account to make decisions about relief supplies scheduling. We depicted the public＇s psychological risk perception with prospect theory, defined and selected the public＇s psychological expectation time as a time reference point, and got out the risk perception curve and function model. We formulated a mixed integer program- ming model to minimize public＇s psychological risk perception and dissatisfaction degree of supplies. The corresponding multi-layer search algorithm was designed. Finally, the validity of this model and algorithm is verified through numerical experiment.

关 键 词：突发事件 优化调度 前景理论 风险感知 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]