产业结构、二氧化碳排放与经济增长  

Industrial Structure,Carbon dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth

作　　者：于左[1] 孔宪丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《经济管理》2013年第7期24-34,共11页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：教育部规划基金项目"中国进口铁矿石等大宗商品定价权缺失的形成机理与对策"(10YJA790237)

摘　　要：本文研究了产业结构、二氧化碳排放与经济增长之间的关系，运用1980-2010年美国、加拿大、英国、法国、德国、澳大利亚、日本、韩国等八个典型发达国家和中国、印度、巴西、南非四个典型发展中国家面板数据，计量检验发现这些国家产业结构、二氧化碳排放与经济增长率之间具有长期协整关系；发达国家二氧化碳排放量与经济增长率之间负相关；发展中国家二氧化碳排放量与经济增长率正相关；无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家，制造业与经济增长均正相关。进一步对中国产业结构、二氧化碳排放量与经济增长率之间的格兰杰因果检验表明，中国产业结构和二氧碳排放量等因素变动并不是引起中国GDP增长率发生变化的原因，但中国GDP增长率变化是中国产业结构变化的原因。这表明，中国保持过高经济增长率尤其是地方政府通过层层分解GDP指标保持经济增长率的做法加剧了中国产业结构偏差，不利于产业结构调整。中国偏向于第二产业、工业和重工业的产业结构及过于依赖煤炭消费的能源结构导致了中国的二氧化碳排放过多。In this paper, we study the relations among industrial structure, carbon dioxide emissions and eco- nomic growth using panel data of eight typical examples of developed countries-the U. S. , Canada, the U. K. , France, Germany, Australia, Japan and Korea-and four typical examples of developing countries-China, India, Brazil and South Africa between 1980 and 2010. The econometric results indicate that there exists long-run integration re- lations among industrial structure, carbon dioxide emissions and GDP growth in these sample countries; carbon diox- ide emissions and GDP growth in the developed countries are negatively correlated; carbon dioxide emissions and GDP growth in the developing countries are positively correlated; manufacturing and GDP growth are positively cor- related in all the sample countries. The Granger causality test that focuses on China shows that the change in indus- trial structure or carbon dioxide emissions is not one cause of the change in the GDP growth rate, which makes it clear that the Chinese policies to readjust industrial structure or to restrict carbon dioxide emissions aiming to trans- forming the GDP growth model will not necessarily negatively influence China＇s economic growth rate. The govern- ment maintains high GDP growth rate, especially through the local government＇ GDP target tier upon tie assignment, which aggravate the deviation of the Chinese industrial structure. The deviation to the second industry, the industry and the heavy or large-scale industry＇s industrial structure and relying on the coal consumptions structure leads to excessive carbon dioxide emissions. The carbon dioxide emissions of per capita GDP in china are so much high than the developing and developed countries. In 2010, the carbon dioxide emissions from the coal consumption to the total carbon dioxide emissions in china is 82 percent,in United States is 35 percent,in German is 38 percent. The key way to Chinese government transforming the economy development pattern is adjusting the industri

关 键 词：产业结构 二氧化碳排放 经济增长率 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]