银行信贷扩张的通货膨胀效应研究——基于CC-LM模型的分析框架  

The Impact Research of China’s Bank Credit Expansion on Inflation——Analyzing Framework Based on the CC-LM Model

作　　者：周光友[1] 曾瑶[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学金融研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2013年第3期98-108,共11页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般项目(2011BJB001);国家社科基金重点项目(09AZD019)

摘　　要：以银行信贷为视角,尝试性地将CC-LM模型引入银行信贷影响通货膨胀的理论分析框架,从而揭示中国银行信贷扩张的通货膨胀效应,并运用格兰杰因果关系检验、VAR模型及脉冲响应等计量方法对二者之间的相关性进行了检验。研究结果表明,信贷扩张是引起中国通货膨胀的重要原因,信贷渠道应该重新得到重视;货币政策对通货膨胀的传导途径中信贷渠道是重要的一环,甚至相对于利率渠道而言更加有效;信贷规模对房地产价格水平具有显著影响,并且在长期内信贷规模的变化最终会反映在房地产价格上。建议在治理通货膨胀时不仅要考虑货币政策的长期和短期效果,而且在实施信贷政策时应同时辅助以相应的房地产财政政策,以避免资产价格的过度上涨。From the perspective of bank credit,this paper is trying to include the CC- LM model into the theoretic analyzing framework for bank credit influencing inflation and reveal the impact of China＇ s bank credit expansion on inflation. The correlation between them is tested with econdmetric methods such as Granger causality test,VAR modeling and Impulse response analysis. The result shows： （ 1 ） Credit expansion is the main cause of Chi- na＇s inflation and the credit channel should attract more attention; （2） The credit channel is an important part in the transmission mechanism of China＇ s monetary policies and it＇ s e- ven more efficient compared with the interest rate channel;（3 ） The credit scale has a sig- nificant influence on the price level of real estate market and in the long term its changes will be reflected on the price level. Thus, in order to control inflation, it should not only con- sider the short and long term effects of monetary policies, but also assist credit policies with corresponding real estate financial policies to prevent the excessive growth of asset price.

关 键 词：信贷扩张 通货膨胀 CC-LM模型 传导机制 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]